Central Asia Fears over China's Power

Antoine Blua

June 17, 2003

PRAGUE - China's rise as a "great power" is raising
fears in Central Asia that Beijing will eventually
dominate the region both economically and militarily.

These fears come despite the friendly relations that
have developed between regional governments over the
past decade. China has repeatedly stressed that it
wants to offer cooperation, not domination. But such
assurances have not kept Central Asians such as
Dushanbe resident Abdelmalek Tordeli from worrying
about the long-term consequences of a Chinese
superpower. "In my opinion China will be one of the
superpowers in the future. [But] I do not feel any
threat for Tajikistan right now," he said.

Beijing's intensified diplomatic activity in the region
was highlighted this month when Chinese President Hu
Jintao visited Kazakhstan as part of his first foreign
trip as head of state. After talks with Hu, President
Nursultan Nazarbaev told reporters, "There are no
unsolved social, economic or political issues between
Kazakhstan and China today."

Central Asian officials are welcoming Beijing's higher
regional profile, especially in Kazakhstan, where China
offers an export alternative to the uncertain Caspian
Basin development.

But Richard Faillace says Central Asian governments are
still suspicious of Beijing even as their ties with
China grow. He teaches foreign policy and diplomatic
history at Kazakhstan's Institute of Management,
Economics and Strategic Research in Almaty.

"There has always been this fear - at least on the part
of Kazakhstan's political thinkers and policymakers -
that someday there may be some sort of Chinese military
invasion in the region. This is a very far-fetched
scenario. I mean, I don't think it's a feasible
scenario, but it is in the perception of the
policymakers in Astana, and it's in the perception of
the political scientists. So I think their policy is
always guided toward want of appeasement with the
Chinese," Faillace said.

Rana Mitter teaches modern Chinese politics and history
at Britain's Oxford University. He noted that most
regional fear of China is general, and rarely focuses
on a specific threat. Apart from Beijing's
determination to raise the flag of the People's
Republic over Taiwan, Mitter added, China is not
behaving in an expansionist way. He said Chinese
authorities are committed to projecting themselves as a
peace-loving nation, and stressing that everyone can
benefit from China's economic growth.

"The Chinese government and Chinese officials are
extremely worried about the perception in the wider
world that China poses any kind of threat.
Diplomatically, the Chinese are always keen to project
an image of international cooperation rather than
confrontation. And they're very keen to be seen as good
neighbors within the Asia-Pacific region," Mitter said.

Territorial disputes had been a sore spot in Chinese
relations with Central Asia. But Beijing made
significant concessions after the breakup of the Soviet
Union in 1991. It kept just 20 percent of the land
disputed with Kazakhstan; with Kyrgyzstan, it kept 30
percent. In the case of Tajikistan, China dropped most
of its claim to the Pamir Mountains.

But last year's ratification by the Kyrgyz parliament
of a 1999 agreement to cede some 95,000 hectares of
land to China prompted thousands of Kyrgyz across the
country to protest. Bishkek had previously transferred
30,000 hectares to Beijing under a 1996 border accord.

Doolot Nusupuv is deputy chairman of the Kyrgyz-
nationalist Asaba (Flag) National Revival Party. He
complained that the Kyrgyz government is making too
many concessions toward an increasingly intrusive
neighbor. "This is a problem. Our government should
strengthen our [national] spirit, lead the country in
the right direction, and develop our state in a
positive way. Instead, it tells us that 1.5 billion
Chinese might occupy our territory. Such an approach
means our destruction even before [Chinese aggression]
occurs," Nusupuv said.

Prior the recent closure of the border to prevent
severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) from spreading
to Central Asia, and the establishment of a new visa
regime put into force last Saturday, an estimated 1,000
Chinese used to cross the border into Kyrgyzstan every
month.

According to the new regulation, citizens on both sides
of the Kyrgyz-Chinese border need a visa to cross.
Previously, no visa was required by either side for
journey of 30 days or less.

Central Asia's fears about China are rooted both in
history and concerns about future jobs and regional
influence. Murat Auezov, a former Kazakh ambassador to
China, said: "I know Chinese culture. We should not
believe anything Chinese politicians say. As a
historian, I'm telling you that 19th-century China,
20th-century China, and 21st-century China are three
different Chinas. But what unites them is the desire to
expand their territories."

Auezov questioned whether it will be Chinese workers
who will be hired to construct the planned pipeline to
link oil-rich northwestern Kazakhstan to China and, if
so, what the conditions of their stay will be. The
danger, he warned, is that the completion of the
project may lead to an inflow of tens of thousands of
Chinese migrants to Kazakhstan, including construction
workers, cooks and doctors.

Jorabeg Mirzaev, a professor at Tajikistan's state
university in Dushanbe, is more optimistic. He predicts
that regional relations with China will deepen and
prove fruitful for everyone involved. "Of course China
can threaten [us]. [But] if we strengthen our
relations, then China can help us," he said.

For some Central Asians, the co-membership of
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and China in the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which also
includes Russia and Uzbekistan, is a guarantee against
any kind of regional aggression from Beijing. "China
should not take any step to threaten Tajikistan,
because now the SCO exists. And China and Russia are
not supposed to do anything to threaten Tajikistan,"
one Tajik man said.

The grouping was established in 1996 to help defuse
tensions along China's borders with the former Soviet
Central Asian states. It has expanded its focus to
include the fight against terrorism, extremism and
separatism as well as the promotion of economic
cooperation.